TPP-11: Hay que abrir el análisis de los acuerdos comerciales
Por Hugo Fazio, Centro de Estudios Nacionales de Desarrollo Alternativo (CENDA)
El Tratado Integral y Progresista de Asociación Transpacífico, como se denominó el concordado entre los once países participantes del acuerdo suscrito en febrero de 2016 y que nunca Barack Obama dio el paso de someterlo a ratificación en el Congreso estadounidense por la convicción de que sería rechazado, merece analizarse en un contexto más amplio. Se dejaron fuera del nuevo texto veinte disposiciones del proyecto promovido ante todo por Estados Unidos, destacando las referidas a propiedad intelectual. Ello responde -según declaró Felipe Lopendía, jefe del equipo negociador chileno- a que ese capítulo fue claramente el más difícil, el más controversial durante el proceso de negociación original” (22/02/12). Sin embargo fue suscrito por los restantes países, incluido Chile. Sin duda, de no haber sido estos puntos retirados habría sido el TPP11 aún más criticable.
El nuevo texto ha sido defendido oficialmente por los beneficios que proporciona en el sector exportador. Ello es propio de cualquier acuerdo de libre comercio. Si se reducen trabas necesariamente las exportaciones deben crecer. Proporcionándose cifras, igual que en los tratados anteriores, de las ganancias producidas. Pero el comercio exterior tiene dos direcciones: se obtienen ventajas y al mismo tiempo se entregan beneficios, que también necesitan dimensionarse y no se hace. El arancel promedio que tienen las adquisiciones efectuadas en el exterior es inferior al 1%. Por lo tanto, la apertura comercial al ingreso de productos desde el exterior es extraordinariamente amplia.
Esta apertura no se redujo solo a lo comercial sino que es absoluta en el movimiento de capitales tanto a los con fines productivos como a los que llegan en busca de utilidades en el mercado de capitales y que tienen muchas veces propósitos abiertamente especulativos. Estos procesos conducen a que el país sea tan dependiente de fenómenos que se viven en el exterior, incidiendo poderosamente en la evolución del ciclo económico interno. Por lo demás, ello lo ratifican elocuentemente hechos recientes. Esta lógica conduce a que en particular indicadores macroeconómicos claves queden entregados exclusivamente a los movimientos del mercado como acontece con el tipo de cambio. El premio Nobel de Economía Paul Krugman ha señalado refiriéndose a la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pago que “el objetivo externo es más una imposición desde el exterior que una elección del propios país”. Ya que ellos resuelven si entran o salen.
En el TPP11 se reafirma un atentado en contra de la soberanía nacional al concederle a la inversión extranjera garantías, como ha denunciado explícitamente el economista chileno de la Universidad de Cambridge, Gabriel Palma, al concederles garantías contra cualquier interferencia “que pueda afectar las expectativas inequívocas y racionales del retorno de la inversión”. El argumento inadmisible dado para justificar este atentado es que ya se había entregado en tratados anteriores. ¿Si un acuerdo lesiona la soberanía nacional ello es un aval para que se siga haciendo? Sin duda que no. La valoración por el Ejecutivo del TPP original es constantemente efectuada realizando comparaciones con el Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Chile y EEUU, en el sentido de no realizar nuevas concesiones en relación a este documento. Pero dejó de lado precisamente la consolidación de garantías a la inversión extranjera que fueron incorporándose en acuerdos de libre comercio posteriores al TLC con EEUU y que en el TPP se refrendaron. Su gravedad queda en evidencia en la cada vez más reiterada amenaza de inversionistas extranjeros de recurrir a organismos internacionales al considerar que una resolución del país les perjudica, demandando no solo reparaciones por las ganancias efectuadas sino también por las rentabilidades que tenían programadas obtener a futuro. Por lo demás, el TLC Chile – EEUU no fue precisamente un acuerdo en que estuvo presente el interés nacional.
En la evolución de la economía mundial se produjo un viraje muy brusco en la década de los ochenta del siglo pasado. “La agenda neoliberal de las últimas cuatro décadas puede haber sido bueno para el 1% de la cúspide de la pirámide, pero no lo fue para el resto. A ambos lados del Atlántico –escribió Joseph Stiglitz mientras se elaboraba el TPP original- los ciudadanos culpan a 3 los acuerdos comerciales, señalándolos como uno de las fuentes de su malestar. Los tratados comerciales de hoy en día se negocian en secreto, en estos tratados los intereses corporativos están muy bien representados, pero los trabajadores y los ciudadanos de a pie están completamente excluidos” (18/07/16). Así sucedió con el proceso de negociación del TPP.
A nivel global, en grandes zonas del mundo, incluído nuestro país, se impusieron políticas de amplia apertura de la economía en gran medida impulsadas por EEUU: colocando la apertura, así como reducir los déficits fiscales y las tasas de inflación como objetivos prioritarios. “(…) con el capitalismo que tenemos desde los ochenta, incluyendo la crisis de 1982 de Chile –ha declarado el economista coreano de la Universidad de Cambridge, Ha Joon Chang, que visita en estos días el país- el mundo ha vivido muchas crisis financieras, mientras que la desigualdad se ha incrementado en la mayoría de los países, la gente suele pensar que el neoliberalismo ha logrado un crecimiento más rápido pero eso no es verdad. (…) el mundo estaba creciendo alrededor de 2,7% donde la década de los sesenta y setenta, y desde los ochenta ha crecido 1,4%”.
Entre los factores que destaca Ha Joon Chang para lograr pasar a etapas superiores en un país como Chile está el papel del Estado. “No puedes desarrollar tu economía –subrayó- con una pequeño rol del gobierno. Si un país como Chile quiere alcanzar los estándares de ingresos de los países desarrollados, el Estado tiene que tener un rol importante”. Lo otro, agregó, tiene que ser con nuestro tema central, “son las dificultades prácticas para la firma de muchos tratados de libre comercio, marco en el que resalta difícil procurar nuevas industrias” (17/08/19).
Temas como los analizados adquieren una dimensión mayor en momentos de la economía mundial como el que estamos viviendo y que exigen respuestas activas de parte del país, particularmente fiscales, dado que las políticas expansivas del Banco Central muestran constantemente que sus políticas anticíclicas tienen un efecto limitado. Basta solamente detenernos en el efecto real de las bajas tasas de interés de política monetaria mantenidas desde hace años y los efectos reales que han tenido en los niveles de actividad económica.
¿No habría que prestar atención, por ejemplo, a las cifras negativas registradas en el comercio exterior. En el primer semestre, las exportaciones se redujeron tanto a China como a EEUU en 11% con relación a los mismos meses de 2018. A la Unión Europea lo hicieron en 13%. Incluso cayeron las colocaciones al conjunto de los países con que se tienen acuerdos comerciales durante enero-junio en 6,9%. Obviamente aumentaron en aquellos países donde se relocalizaron empresas chinas para exportar desde ese país a EEUU.
HUGO FAZIO
Agosto 2019
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