Lecciones para el Acuerdo Transpacífico de Libre Comercio, comentario experto
Hay muchas lecciones del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) que son relevantes para el actual debate sobre el Acuerdo Transpacífico de Libre Comercio (TPP).
Por Mark Weisbrot es Co-Director del Center for Economic and Policy Research Washington, D.C.
En primer lugar, como el TPP, el TLCAN en general nunca fue sobre comercio y aún menos sobre libre comercio. En 1994, los Estados Unidos ya tenía barreras arancelarias bajas para los productos mexicanos. El acuerdo fue mucho más sobre la creación y expansión de nuevos derechos y privilegios para los inversores, y sobre todo para las empresas multinacionales.
Por ejemplo, la disposición sobre la solución de controversias entre inversores y Estados (ISDS) del TLCAN permitió a corporaciones demandar directamente a los gobiernos por leyes o decisiones judiciales que infringiesen sus ganancias. Eso se convirtió en una amenaza para el medio ambiente, la seguridad alimentaria, la salud pública y otras regulaciones. La preocupación principal es que las leyes soberanas y los sistemas judiciales de los signatarios de tratados como el TLCAN podrían estar subordinados a un tribunal que establecido por el acuerdo, sin las garantías y el alcance del debido proceso, por ejemplo, el sistema legal de los Estados Unidos y los jueces que en general eran más favorables a las corporaciones que al interés público.
El ISDS es una de las disposiciones más importantes del TPP que ha generado una oposición de grupos ambientales y otros grupos de interés público. Los defensores del tratado sostienen que ahora tenemos ISDS en docenas de acuerdos internacionales, y que había solo 13 fallos contra los Estados Unidos. Pero, como el economista Jeffrey Sachs ha señalado, las corporaciones recién han comenzado a hacer uso de esta ventaja: “En 1995, solo un puñado de casos de ISDS han sido presentados; a finales de 2014, había más que 600 demandas conocidas (porque la mayoría de los arbitrajes puede llevarse a cabo en secreto, puede haber habido muchos más reclamos).”
Desde el TLCAN, economistas también aprendieron que los beneficios de las partes de estos acuerdos que tienen que ver con el comercio son extremadamente pequeños. La estimación más amplia citada de las ganancias a los Estados Unidos del TPP es de alrededor de 0,4 por ciento del PIB después de 10 años; esto es total, no la ganancia anual. Eso sería apenas notable. Y peor, el impacto probable del TPP en la desigualdad salarial acabaría con estas ganancias de la mayoría de los asalariados, por lo que la mayoría de la gente estaría en peores condiciones como resultado del acuerdo.
Peor aún, las disposiciones del TPP que fortalecen y alargan la protección de las patentes y de los derechos de autor, de acuerdo con las informaciones filtradas, tendrían un impacto aún más grande en la distribución no equitativa de ingreso. No es una exageración cuando opositores del TPP se refieren al acuerdo como una “toma de poder corporativo.”
Por supuesto, a México le fue bastante mal en 20 años siguiendo el TLCAN. Mientras a América Latina en su conjunto si bien le fue mal en los 20 años del siglo XX (el crecimiento total de PIB per cápita fue de apenas 5,7 por ciento durante las dos décadas, en comparación con 91,5 por ciento en los últimos 20 años [1960-1980]), la mayor parte de la región se recuperó en el cambio de siglo. Pero el crecimiento del ingreso por habitante de México fue solo un 18,6 por ciento de 1994-2014, lo que es alrededor la mitad del resto de la región. La tasa de pobreza en México de 52,3 por ciento fue casi la misma que en 1994, por lo tanto añadió 14,3 millones de personas a la población que vive debajo del umbral de la pobreza.
Las lecciones del TLCAN son una parte grande de la razón por la cual el gobierno de Obama tiene tantas dificultades de conseguir que el TPP pase el Congreso. Por supuesto los defensores del TPP también aprendieron de las lecciones del TLCAN: Es por eso que sus contenidos se mantuvieron en secreto para el público a través de negociaciones.
Sobre el autor:
Mark Weisbrot es Co-Director del Center for Economic and Policy Research en Washington, D.C., y Presidente del Just Foreign Policy. Es también el autor del libro “Failed: What the Experts Got Wrong About the Global Economy (Oxfort University Press, 2015).
Traducción: Mareike Kriening y Svenja Jandrasits
Artículo original en inglés disponible en:
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/lessons-trans-pacific-partnership
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