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Un ánalisis desde Chile: Comienzo del fin del Acuerdo Transpacífico (TPP)

Por Paul Walder Punto Final
El gobierno chileno, que suscribió en febrero pasado el TPP (Acuerdo Transpacífico de Cooperación Económica), tenía en agenda su ratificación por el Legislativo durante el año, trámite que tras diversos desvíos y obstáculos ha comenzado a postergarse con posibilidades de replegarse a los últimos meses del año. Los escenarios político y social internos se han enrarecido y el global está en un interregno. Las elecciones en Estados Unidos, que se celebrarán en noviembre próximo, serán una fecha clave que definirá el futuro de este Tratado. Porque es en EE.UU., eje y promotor de esta nueva oleada de tratados comerciales globales, donde se despliegan las mayores incertidumbres. Los dos candidatos a la Presidencia, Hillary Clinton y Donald Trump, han declarado su rechazo al TPP, lo cual sellaría su suerte.

En este trance, Chile, como pieza subordinada del imperio, esperará movimientos externos antes de decidir. Esta es la percepción que tienen en la Plataforma Chile Mejor sin TPP, instancia que agrupa a 130 organizaciones sociales que se oponen a la ratificación del Tratado. Pese a ello, según la Plataforma, Chile no está totalmente libre de la vigencia del tratado aun con un eventual rechazo parlamentario. “Para su entrada en vigencia, el TPP debe ser ratificado al menos por los Parlamentos de seis de los países suscriptores, los que deben a su vez representar al menos el 85% del PIB del total de países miembros. Estados Unidos representa el 67%, lo que implica que sea una condición necesaria que EE.UU. apruebe el TPP para que este entre en vigor”.

El actual escenario, que trasciende tanto el accionar del Poder Legislativo como, a partir de ahora, la capacidad de presión de las organizaciones, se ordena en torno a los factores interno y global. Ambos frentes juegan en contra de este tratado de última generación, que ensanchará la desregulación de mercados y reforzará la protección de inversiones en favor de las grandes corporaciones con evidentes y comprobados efectos sobre los trabajadores y consumidores.

El análisis sobre el frente interno que realiza Chile Mejor sin TPP apunta al muy desfavorable clima social y político para el gobierno, el cual se presenta poco propicio para continuar empujando un tratado comercial de tal magnitud e implicaciones negativas para las comunidades. Sin duda, afirman, un nuevo foco de conflicto social se abriría para el Ejecutivo. En este escenario hay que considerar también el bajo apoyo político al gobierno, que a inicios de agosto marcó mínimos históricos, con una presidenta bajo el 19 por ciento de apoyo y un gabinete con escaso 13 por ciento. Todo ello agregado al inminente ingreso en un periodo electoral, que a partir de octubre, con las elecciones municipales, no dará tregua en adelante.

En este escenario de pequeños conflictos políticos y crecientes movilizaciones sociales, el rechazo al TPP, que se extiende a más de un centenar de organizaciones representativas de numerosos territorios y sectores, tiene también una de sus múltiples puntas instalada en el masivo repudio ciudadano y laboral a las AFP. En medio del fragor por un cambio al sistema de capitalización individual, la Fundación Sol advirtió que una eventual ratificación del TPP por el Congreso cerraría aún más las posibilidades de cambiar el modelo previsional para dar paso a un sistema de reparto administrado por el Estado, en cuanto el TPP refuerza las protecciones a las inversiones extranjeras.

PROTECCION DE INVERSIONES

A TODO EVENTO

En documentos del TPP conocidos a través de WikiLeaks y otras filtraciones, uno de los puntos más riesgosos que derivarían en graves daños y efectiva pérdida de soberanía para los Estados, son los recargados poderes traspasados a las corporaciones, en su gran mayoría estadounidenses. Bajo las normas de solución de controversias propuestas por el TPP, las grandes empresas pueden demandar a los Estados ante un tribunal comercial internacional por introducir nuevas leyes -desde las que protegen al consumidor a cambios como pretende la ciudadanía con el sistema de AFP- que dañen sus inversiones y negocios.

La Plataforma Chile Mejor sin TPP advierte que el mecanismo que el tratado establece permite a las empresas transnacionales situarse en un nivel de igualdad frente a los Estados y tiende a favorecer las reclamaciones de las empresas, pues se presentan en instancias de arbitraje como el Ciadi (tribunal del Banco Mundial) que hoy se encuentran fuertemente cuestionadas por su sesgo en favor de las grandes transnacionales. Esto, porque al considerar como base jurídica de sus decisiones solamente los tratados de protección de inversiones, dejan al margen las leyes del Estado acusado y otra normativa del derecho público internacional. Asimismo, la composición de los tribunales arbitrales favorece a la empresa querellante, la que designa uno de los tres jueces e interviene en la designación del presidente. Esto sucede además dentro de un listado de abogados cuya objetividad ha sido cuestionada, puesto que existe una verdadera industria del arbitraje motivada por los elevados honorarios de estos jueces, a lo que se añade que muchos de ellos han sido empleados de grandes multinacionales, lo que constituye un grave conflicto de intereses.

En mayo pasado, la activista altermundista Susan George hizo unas reflexiones en torno al hermano gemelo del TPP, que es el TTIP (Asociación Trasatlántica para el Comercio y la Inversión), entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, pacto sin duda más simétrico que el de marras al cual Chile se ha suscrito. Para George, estos tratados son un regalo para las grandes corporaciones transnacionales ya que se les da la libertad de denunciar a los gobiernos si no les gustan las leyes que éstos aprueban.

Existen muchos ejemplos de la judicialización para la protección de las inversiones aún sin el TPP o el TTIP. El gobierno de Egipto, cita George, aumentó el salario mínimo y entonces Veolia, una empresa francesa, demandó al Estado al sentirse obligada a aumentar sus costos laborales. Ecuador, en tanto, no autorizó que una empresa petrolera norteamericana pudiera perforar en una zona concreta. Ecuador ha sido castigado con una multa de 1.800 millones de dólares.

Otro episodio de evidente sesgo empresarial ha sido el bullado caso de Metalclad Corporation contra México bajo las normas del Nafta o Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte. El tribunal arbitral resolvió en 1997 contra México por la negación del permiso municipal para comenzar a construir un proyecto minero y la declaración que hizo el Estado mexicano de convertir la zona en un Parque Nacional. Entonces México fue obligado a indemnizar daños con 16,7 millones de dólares.

EL PERVERSO VINCULO TPP Y AFP

El caso de las AFP se ajusta a la perfección a estas condiciones. Es un negocio que administra más de 180 mil millones de dólares, concentrado en pocas manos y transnacionalizado. Hoy tres AFP, Provida (MetLife) Habitat (Cámara de la Construcción) y Capital (grupo internacional Sura), administran casi el 80 por ciento de los fondos de los trabajadores chilenos. Junto a éstas, aparece Cuprum (del grupo internacional Principal) y Planvital (controlada por el grupo italiano Generali).

El TPP mejora sin duda la protección de los inversionistas al incorporar el criterio de la expectativa legítima de ganancia, utilizado por los tribunales arbitrales para expandir su competencia. Sin perjuicio de que el TPP aclara que el mero hecho que un gobierno afecte la expectativa del inversionista no es suficiente para constituir un reclamo, el TPP reconoce expresamente que la expectativa de legítima ganancia merece protección, perjudicando la posición de los Estados en los juicios arbitrales.

Todo lo anterior tendrá consecuencias negativas para Chile. Para empezar, el menoscabo de la capacidad regulatoria de los Estados. Debido a ello, distintas organizaciones, no sólo en Chile, sino en todos los países participantes, e incluso autoridades de la ONU, han llamado a rechazar el TPP.

EL FACTOR GLOBAL

Pero es sin duda el factor externo el que juega con más fuerza en contra del TPP. Las declaraciones de los dos candidatos a la Presidencia de Estados Unidos han reconocido que el TPP, del mismo modo que otros tratados de libre comercio, como el mismo Nafta, han eliminado millones de puestos de trabajo, los que se han ido a otras latitudes junto a las inversiones. En sus discursos, Clinton y Trump -al prometer revitalizar la economía y la creación de empleos- han apuntado a los acuerdos comerciales globalizadores como el factor que ha deteriorado la economía estadounidense. Por ello, ambos rechazan el TPP.

Clinton, que lidera las encuestas, afirmó que, de ganar en noviembre, se opondrá al TPP para defender el empleo en EE.UU. “Detendré cualquier acuerdo comercial que destruya trabajos y rebaje los salarios, incluido el TPP”, declaró en un acto de campaña, en referencia a las insinuaciones de que podría cambiar de opinión una vez que llegue a la Casa Blanca, puesto que lo defendió cuando era secretaria de Estado en el gobierno de Barack Obama. “Me opongo ahora, me opondré tras las elecciones y me opondré como presidenta”, insistió.

En su discurso, en una zona otrora emblemática del desarrollo industrial estadounidense y hoy muy golpeada por los efectos de la globalización y los acuerdos comerciales, Clinton explicó parte de su plan económico: “Demasiadas empresas han presionado para lograr acuerdos comerciales para poder vender sus productos en el extranjero y, en su lugar, se trasladaron fuera”, con la consiguiente pérdida de empleos estadounidenses. Como efecto de este fenómeno, la riqueza se ha concentrado de forma inédita en los dueños del capital llevando a su vez a la pobreza a millones de trabajadores hoy precarizados y desempleados.

Como medida económica, Clinton propone “invertir diez mil millones de dólares en asociaciones ‘Hazlo en EE.UU.’ para apoyar un renacimiento manufacturero” en el país.

Las propuestas, tanto de Trump como de Clinton apuntan hacia un cambio sustantivo en las políticas económicas de EE.UU. en las últimas décadas, impulsadas por las grandes corporaciones en busca de menores costos de elaboración bajo el amparo de sus gobiernos y los organismos financieros internacionales. Estas declaraciones, que intentan ganar apoyo electoral entre los atemorizados trabajadores, sin duda van a contrapelo de los intereses de los grandes capitales, por lo que despliegan un gran manto de duda sobre su real aplicación. Porque es un hecho que la globalización financiera, industrial y comercial ha fortalecido y empoderado a las grandes corporaciones norteamericanas.

Pese a ello, está la otra cara, la que padecemos desde Chile y todos los países al sur de Estados Unidos: la concentración de la riqueza, el aumento de la desigualdad y el malestar social. El TPP, que sólo busca amplificar estas contradicciones extremas del capital, detona rechazos en el mismo establishment del imperio. Pero en países dependientes como Chile sus políticos corruptos continúan con un discurso servil y engañoso que sólo favorece a las grandes compañías.

Publicado en “Punto Final”, Chile, edición Nº 858, 19 de agosto 2016.

revistapuntofinal@movistar.cl

www.puntofinal.cl

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