Economista, Hassan Akram: la Direcon hizo una pésima negociación en el TPP-11
- El académico explica que si en un futuro se creara una empresa estatal de litio se tendrían que acatar las reglas del TPP-11 que restringen su crecimiento
El tratado integral y progresista de asociación transpacífico o TPP-11 entró en vigencia el 31 de diciembre de 2018 para los 7 países que ya lo ratificaron, estos son: Vietnam, Canadá, México, Singapur, Japón, Canadá y Australia. En Chile, debido a la suma urgencia puesta por el ejecutivo, el tratado fue aprobado por la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores de la Cámara de Diputados y próximamente debe ser discutido por la Comisión de Hacienda.
El TPP-11 ha sido promovido como uno de los mayores acuerdos comerciales del mundo, abarcando 500 millones de habitantes y un PIB de 13.5 billones de dólares. Pese a que en todos los países existen organizaciones ciudadanas que han recalcado los peligros del TPP-11, los negociadores encargados lo promueven con la idea de que una economía abierta y la protección de las inversiones extranjeras generará mayor crecimiento económico, empleo, reducción de la pobreza, etc.
Hassan Akram doctor en ciencias sociales y profesor de economía de la Universidad de Chile, explica por qué las pretensiones de crecimiento económico no serán logradas con el TPP-11 y cómo las normativas de este tratado limitan la soberanía de Chile impidiéndole mejorar las regulaciones ambientales o proteger nuevas empresas estatales.
¿Si el TPP no modifica temas arancelarios cuál es el propósito de este tratado?
Es un tratado de protección de inversiones, lo que significa que genera nuevas leyes y nuevas cortes de tribunales internacionales que protegen las inversiones de empresas extranjeras. La justificación es que si se sienten con mayor seguridad jurídica, las empresas van a invertir más en Chile, no es que Chile va a vender más afuera por las bajas arancelarias gracias a los tratados, sino que se hacen más cosas en Chile porque hay más empresas y fábricas que construyan, esa es la justificación.
¿Por qué se afirma que el TPP-11 por sí solo no puede aumentar el crecimiento económico del país?
Esto es algo que está muy estudiado por los economistas que miden lo que pasa cuando un país firma un acuerdo de protección de inversiones, más que un tratado de Libre comercio TPP es un tratado de protección de inversiones, entonces se mide qué pasa en términos de inversión extranjera directa y lo que detectan es que, en general, lo que hace que un país tenga mayor inversión extranjera es que el país ya está creciendo rápidamente por sus razones internas, como una primera cosa. Segunda cosa, es que tienen un mercado interno muy grande o está cerca de un mercado interno grande, eso es lo fundamental de la economía que atrae muchas inversiones extranjeras, el problema es que Chile no tiene eso, está creciendo cada vez más lentamente por los problemas internos.
¿Qué medidas debería tomar el Estado para alcanzar diversidad de las exportaciones?
Si un país exporta solamente un solo producto, por ejemplo cobre que en este momento es el 60% de las exportaciones chilenas, entonces cuando baja el precio afecta a todo el país, no solo al sector del cobre sino que a toda la economía porque no pueden sacar sus recursos y ponerlos en otros sectores, porque no hay. Lo que tienden a hacer los Estados es promover la diversificación productiva, a través de políticas de planificación industrial o políticas de innovación que condicionan la inversión, por ejemplo, que las empresas extranjeras tienen que compartir tecnologías con empresas o trabajadores de Chile.
¿En qué sentido los cambios para diversificar las exportaciones se ven prohibidos por el TPP-11?
En el TPP estas medidas están derechamente prohibidas. Si vas al CPTPP dice: ningún país puede condicionar inversiones por cuestiones de transferencia de tecnología, entonces si Chile lo hace, el inversor extranjero demanda a Chile y el país debe eliminar esa medida o pagar una indemnización a la empresa.
En ese sentido, ¿es efectivo que el TPP-11 quita soberanía al Estado?
Totalmente y también frente a una serie de regulaciones que son decisiones soberanas de Chile, por ejemplo, si se decide hacer una regulación ambiental por la contaminación de las termoeléctricas en Quintero-Puchuncaví o se limita el uso de agua en Petorca; entonces una empresa extranjera, que tiene inversiones en estos sectores, puede decir que esas regulaciones bajan sus utilidades y corresponde a lo que se llama “expropiación indirecta” y, según el TPP-11, si se hace esto el Estado debe indemnizar a la empresa. Entonces, éstas pueden demandar a Chile y el país está obligado a pagar o no hacer la regulación, eso es limitación directa de la soberanía.
¿Todos los países firmantes aceptaron la totalidad de las medidas que protegen la inversión extranjera?
Los países del TPP-11 son países asiáticos en vías de desarrollo que no son ricos, pero han crecido muy rápidamente gracias, precisamente, al uso de estas políticas de diversificación productiva. Entonces países que se han beneficiado de estas medidas buscan prohibir que otros las ocupen. Por ejemplo, países como Malasia aceptaron eliminar el “impuesto escalonado”, que disminuye los impuestos a productos de mayor complejidad tecnológica, pero de aquí a 15 años más, en cambio Chile lo aceptó para ejecutarlo de inmediato y para siempre, sin ningún periodo de transición.
¿Direcon pudo haber negociado estas condiciones de mejor manera?
Sí, la Direcon hizo una pésima negociación, podía haber mantenido estas políticas como lo hizo Malasia y Vietnam, pero no lo hicieron…
¿Cuál es la problemática de los tribunales de solución de controversias incluídos en los TLCs?
Hay un sesgo estructural en estos tribunales porque no son como las cortes normales, en una corte la decisión puede ser a favor de la defensa o del demandante, pero en ningún caso afecta el salario del juez. En el arbitraje internacional sólo los inversores pueden usar este sistema, los estados no pueden demandar a los inversionistas. Las empresas son clientes de estos tribunales y si éstas no demandan los árbitros no reciben pago, entonces hay un incentivo económico para seguir fallando a favor del inversionista. Si uno entra a los fallos, por ejemplo, de “expropiación indirecta” el 70% es a favor de la empresa.
¿Entonces estos fallos sí pueden amedrentar a los Estados a modificar ciertas regulaciones?
Totalmente, ha pasado en Alemania con el tema de la energía nuclear que una trasnacional sueca demandó al estado alemán cuando puso mayores regulaciones en el sector nuclear, porque efectivamente el estado buscaba eliminarlo luego del desastre de Fukushima, entonces la multinacional simplemente demandó al Estado alemán, y para no tener que pagar indemnizaciones enormes, Alemania decidió reducir la exigencia de la regulación. Este es un ejemplo, donde proponen una regulación y después la bajan directamente por la demanda de una empresa. También hay otros casos, por ejemplo el de Phillip Morris con el Estado uruguayo que quería prohibir la publicidad del tabaco, aquí eventualmente ganó Uruguay, pero mientras se resolvía esta demanda países como Canadá decidieron no regular en contra de la publicidad, porque las tabaqueras los podían demandar. A veces las empresas saben que van a perder, pero demandan para frenar o hacer más lento el proceso de regulación, en literatura académica a esto se le llama “congelamiento de políticas públicas debido al arbitraje”.
¿Cómo afectaría el TPP-11, por ejemplo, en el caso de la creación de una Empresa nacional de litio?
El TPP-11 dice que todas las empresas creadas por el Estado tienen que existir como empresas privadas, o sea que el Estado no puede tener un trato preferente con sus empresas, esto sería competencia desleal, ya que otras empresas no podrían competir frente a una que recibe ayuda o subsidios del Estado sin ningún costo. Entonces si el Estado quisiera invertir en una empresa estatal de litio, otros inversores podrían demandar a Chile diciendo que la empresa estatal vende a un precio muy bajo porque recibe «ayuda no comercial». En Chile esto pasaría con empresas estatales que no están creadas hasta el momento, las empresas públicas que existen hasta ahora son excepciones a estas reglas como Codelco, ENAP, Banco Estado, etc. Sin embargo, otros países negociaron para proteger también empresas estatales que pudieran crearse en un futuro, Chile sólo lo hizo para las existentes, por eso si en futuro se creara una empresa estatal de litio se tendrían que acatar estas reglas que restringen su crecimiento.
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