Chile, el TPP y la decadencia de Estados Unidos
Con la firma del Acuerdo Transpacífico (TPP), Chile se ha puesto voluntariamente en una encrucijada que conduce a dos caminos negativos. En estas líneas trataré de dilucidar cuál es, en mi opinión –de entre su ratificación o rechazo– la alternativa menos mala.
Para formarse una opinión amplia e informada sobre el TPP y no perderse en una maraña de detalles, me parece imprescindible analizar, por una parte, el modelo económico aplicado en Chile por la dictadura, mantenido e incluso profundizado por los gobiernos posteriores. Esto en virtud de que la clave del crecimiento y el desarrollo económicos descansa en la estrategia de comercio exterior y, en particular, en la política arancelaria que se adopte. Por otra parte, dado que el TPP contempla medidas arancelarias y, esencialmente, paraarancelarias, se colige la importancia que reviste el análisis de la relación entre ambos.
La política arancelaria existente al llegar la dictadura era caótica: aranceles usualmente muy altos y diferenciados por tipo de producto, cuotas de importación, depósitos de importación de 10.000%, etc. El nivel arancelario era con frecuencia proporcional a la capacidad de presión que podían ejercer empresas y sectores; en la jerga actual, dependía de la capacidad de lobby.
Al llegar la dictadura, se implementó un programa de rebajas arancelarias con la meta de alcanzar un arancel bajo y parejo. La velocidad a la que se implementó constituyó un verdadero “industrialicidio”, produciéndose innumerables quiebras de empresas y sectores industriales completos, generándose como consecuencia obvia altísimos niveles de cesantía, del orden de dos dígitos.
Es indudable que esta política no podría haberse llevado a cabo en democracia, pero el sistema obedecía al menos a una lógica clara.
Pues bien, en la actualidad con la gran cantidad de acuerdos y Tratados de Libre Comercio (TLCs) firmados, existe una especie de caos arancelario que no responde a ningún sistema racional. Existe un arancel general de 6% y una infinidad de “perforaciones” arancelarias (arancel 0%), pero ahora no en función del tipo de bien sino del país de origen del mismo. Todo esto como consecuencia de los 25 acuerdos firmados por Chile que involucran a 24 países. En resumen, de un sistema arancelario caótico pasamos a otro.
Analizando el TPP como una manifestación de la globalidad, se observa un trasfondo claramente político, lo que en sí no tiene connotación negativa. La economía es política. En este aspecto, la motivación de USA es meridianamente clara: neutralizar el creciente avance económico, político y militar chino. Las alternativas en este aspecto son claras: la ratificación del TPP significa adherir a lo propuesto por USA alejándonos de la vereda opuesta –en la que se encuentra China– a pesar que las cifras macroeconómicas señalan a este último como un claro vencedor sobre USA en la carrera macroeconómica: la locomotora China avanza a 100 km por hora y la de USA lo hace a una velocidad mucho menor. ¿Cifras? Veamos. El año 1975, el PIB chino representaba el 2,8% del PIB mundial ascendiendo al 13.5 % en el año 2014, es decir, la proporción casi se quintuplica. En el mismo período, la participación de USA –por el contrario– disminuyó de 28% a 22.4%.
Adicionalmente, las estadísticas de exportaciones muestran con nitidez que USA, nuestro principal socio comercial, fue reemplazado por China poco antes que comenzara la crisis subprime. Examinando las cifras en un contexto más amplio, se observa que el año 1965 las exportaciones chilenas a China representaban el 0.9 % mientras que el 2015 ascendieron al 26,3%. En el caso de USA, las cifras son 31 % y 13 %, respectivamente.
De paso señalamos que Chile sigue siendo una economía totalmente dependiente de los vaivenes de la economía mundial, pero con una salvedad crucial: la locomotora norteamericana de crecimiento (the engine of growth) fue sustituida por la China. Si la estructura de nuestras exportaciones hubiera sido la existente hace dos décadas o más, la crisis subprime tendría efectos devastadores sobre nuestra economía.
El caso de la decadencia de la economía norteamericana, como veremos a continuación, es triste, pues hay que hacer un claro distingo entre el pueblo norteamericano y las cúpulas políticas y empresariales. Me hace recordar a Emmanuel Todd, demógrafo, politólogo, sociólogo francés, quién escribió en 2003 “Después del imperio. Ensayo sobre la descomposición del sistema norteamericano”.
Para quienes no lo conocen, Todd escribió en 1976 “La caída final. Un ensayo sobre la descomposición de la esfera soviética”, en momentos en que era insólito pronosticar la caída de la Unión Soviética. Este y otros ensayos le han permitido ganar el respeto de la comunidad mundial.
Pues bien, en una entrevista que le hicieron el año 2004 –tres años antes de que comenzara la crisis subprime– Todd plantea algo que es conocido en el ámbito académico: Estados Unidos está viviendo muy por encima de sus posibilidades y la brecha entre lo que produce y consume se ensancha cada vez más. “Si bien su potencial económico relativo ha retrocedido mucho –señala Todd– Estados Unidos ha conseguido aumentar masivamente su capacidad de exacción sobre la economía mundial, hasta el punto de que es posible afirmar objetivamente que se han convertido en una nación depredadora”.
Los enormes déficits fiscales y en la cuenta corriente de la Balanza de Pagos, llamados déficits gemelos (twin deficits) en los que ha incurrido USA ratifican lo afirmado por Todd. Pues bien, el TPP está orientado a aumentar la capacidad de exacción de USA ya señalada, al proteger intereses contrarios al libre comercio, fortaleciendo los monopolios de los derechos de propiedad intelectual especialmente de las grandes transnacionales farmacéuticas, de medios de comunicación y de tecnología de la información, entre otras.
Los enormes déficits fiscales y en la cuenta corriente de la Balanza de Pagos, llamados déficits gemelos (twin deficits) en los que ha incurrido USA ratifican lo afirmado por Todd. Pues bien, el TPP está orientado a aumentar la capacidad de exacción de USA ya señalada, al proteger intereses contrarios al libre comercio, fortaleciendo los monopolios de los derechos de propiedad intelectual especialmente de las grandes transnacionales farmacéuticas, de medios de comunicación y de tecnología de la información, entre otras.
En el plano estratégico, los TLCs firmados por Chile en los últimos 5 años apuntan claramente a Asia, en cambio el TPP apunta a USA. Esto denota claramente que no hay una política exterior coherente.
En síntesis, los aspectos más negativos del TPP en una cáscara de nuez, sabiendo que por limitaciones de espacio quedan fuera aspectos tan importantes como los temas medioambientales, cultivos transgénicos u otros, son: i) limitar la competencia de tribunales chilenos para controversias con inversionistas extranjeros y/o empresas multinacionales constituye una clara pérdida de soberanía, ii) limitar la acción de las empresas del Estado existentes e impedir la creación de nuevas empresas estatales restringe indudablemente el ámbito de acción de la política económica. Con esto no se podría crear una empresa estatal que regule ganancias excesivas de las AFPs e Isapres, por poner un ejemplo, y iii) permitir el desmantelamiento de las pocas regulaciones existentes a los movimientos de capitales, limitando la capacidad de decisión del Banco Central, deja a nuestra frágil economía a merced de los movimientos de capitales especulativos.
Desde el punto de vista macroeconómico, el TPP debe rechazarse porque, además de las razones antes expuestas, su ratificación implicaría respaldar y seguir ahondando en el modelo de comercio exterior chileno con sus nefastas consecuencias sobre el empleo, la distribución del ingreso y sobre el medio ambiente.
Finalmente, aunque no menos importante, es la limitación de los derechos de los usuarios de internet. Esto nos privaría del poder de las redes sociales para conocer y denunciar la corrupción y otras malas prácticas existentes en buena parte del mundo empresarial y político.
Hernán Morales
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